This project explores the characteristics and changes in communities over time. It primarily relies on Canadian census data between 1986 and 2016 with additions from special surveys such as community finances and businesses (https://www.concordia.ca/artsci/sociology-anthropology/research/nre/resources/NREData.html).
These are rough notes with various links to provide an idea about the frameworks and methodological approaches I have used to examine the trajectories of communities over time. Most of them are explored using the Canadian Longitudinal CSD database (https://www.concordia.ca/artsci/sociology-anthropology/research/nre/resources/NREData.html).
- The SSHRC proposal and report I was awarded to explore these issues: Proposal for The Trajectories of Rural Communities in Canada. Submitted to SSHRC. Funding successful for April 2009 to March 2012. See also pdf.
- A chapter in John Parkins’ book. Reimer, Bill (2013) “The trajectories of rural communities in Canada: A review of the literature” Pp 91-109 in Parkins, John R. and Maureen G. Reed, Social Transformation in Rural Canada: Community, Cultures, and Collective Action, Vancouver: UBC Press.
- An exploration of trajectories using a Markov Chain approach. In this I used three categories of population size from 1986 to 1991 (High, Medium, Low) – looking to see how quickly the matrix stabilized over various periods. See xlsx
- An exploration of trajectories using constructed graphs. I examined changes in a number of variables such as: Median HH Income, Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Lone Female Parents, and % Management/Professional. See: pdf. I have printed this file as a pdf file since the excel file that generates them includes some external linkages. The thickness of the trajectory lines indicates the number of sites in the relevant trajectory.
- An exploration of trajectories using traditional regression analysis. These are mostly contained in a series of reports by one of my students. They focus on Population Growth, Employment Growth, and GINI to identify the major changes and contributing factors over various periods (e.g. 2 consecutive census periods). His technical notes can be found in Assignment_20 Nov_Prof ReimerReadOnly.pdf. A document outlining our strategy can be found here: pdf.
- Results of the analysis can be easiest seen using coefficients generated when we applied the analysis to various Zones for Vodden’s book on rural development [Vodden, K., Douglas, D. J. A., Markey, S., Minnes, S., & Reimer, B. (Eds.). (2019). The Theory, Practice and Potential of Regional Development: The Case of Canada, 1st Edition – Routledge.] See Assn19Standardized beta coefficients_all zoneBRReadOnly.xlsx. The output is also contained in beta coefficients22_11_2013V02ReadOnly.xlsx. Some of his results are also found in this type of file: result_population_STAR analysisReadOnly.txt. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_model for STAR analysis.
My intention was to get back to this analysis, evaluate the different approaches, conduct the analysis for a series of the early years, and use the latter years as opportunities to test the models. I would also like to use the data to explore some of the new AI models that have proliferated over the last few years. Most of these would be able to handle the data we have available, and would give some interesting results, I expect. Most of the AI models are designed for the analysis of business data (in some cases textual, but also numerical).
I hope you find this useful. I will be willing to follow up on any questions or suggestions you have.